'Quantile Regression' Bitcoin price model hints at $275K BTC by November 2025

After dropping 3.45% on Sept. 30, Bitcoin ( BTC ) missed out on a monthly bullish engulfing candle for the first time since January 2023.

Still, a year-long bull flag remains in play for Bitcoin, which will undergo a bullish breakout once BTC closes above $68,000-$70,000 on the monthly chart.

Bitcoin monthly chart. Source: Trading View

Bitcoin cycle top could be $275K in November 2025: Researcher

Smithson With, a Bitcoin researcher, presented a new approach to predict Bitcoin’s cycle top price using a quantile regression model.

In an X post, With explains that quantile regression prioritizes all cumulative BTC data to present quantiles or percentiles, which can be used to study Bitcoin returns over a period of time. The cumulative data taken into consideration is supply, volatility, distribution over time and survivability in any risk environment.

Unlike traditional linear regression, quantile regression presents a deeper insight into the potential outcome by concentrating on extremes — the 99th percentile in this case, according to the researcher.

Quantile regression model by Smithson With. Source: X.com

With adds that the current projection is a simulation of a 99th percentile power-law regression model, which is drawn by using Bitcoin price data dating back to July 2013. The researcher says:

“You see that the model trajectory and Nov 1st, 2025 price prediction changes dramatically (performing the modelling in 2013 is bright pink, most recently is yellow) — but, it clearly forms a quasi-exponential decay trend.”

A quasi-exponential decay trend means that the period of deviation from the actual trend has either halved or doubled over time.

In essence, With predicts that the cycle top will be around November 2025, with a price target as high as $275,000.

Additionally, the above study can be refined if these deviations can be channelled through a decay period, and evaluated for multiple percentiles, as With expects further analysis to eventually confirm a cycle top value between $250,000-$300,000 in 2025.

Key BTC price support remains at $63.2K

Bitcoin has quickly recovered to $64,000 after dropping to as low as $62,825 on Sept. 30.

Luckshury, lead at trading platform Exocharts, highlights that Bitcoin’s uptrend will likely continue if the key support at $63,200 holds. This particular price is the point-of-control (POC) based on the recent uptrend formation, the trader explains.

Luckshury BTC trending profile chart. Source: X.com

The POC is formed where the most amount of trading activity, or volume, has taken place.

The trader adds that a move above the immediate overhead resistance at $64,700 would trigger a signal for the next bullish leg up. However, losing $63,200, or POC, in the next few days would completely change the trend bias and potentially trigger a correction period.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.