Will Markets Continue to Dump Amid $1.6B in Crypto Options Expiring Today?

Around 18,800 Bitcoin options contracts will be expiring on Friday, Oct. 11, with a notional value of around $1.1 billion.

Today’s options expiry is very similar to last week’s as implied volatility declines, and expiry events are now smaller. Therefore, it is unlikely to impact spot markets, which have been retreating this week.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.91, meaning that the amount of expiring long (call) contracts and shorts (puts) are more evenly matched. The max pain point, or level at which most losses will be made, is $62,000, around $1,500 higher than current spot prices.

Additionally, open interest (OI), or the value or number of open options contracts yet to expire, is still high at the strike price of $70,000 with $790 million. OI at the $80,000 strike price has fallen to $723 million, and, according to Deribit, there is still $964 million at the $100,000 strike price.

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live observed that markets continued to weaken, and the key $60,000 level was “now hotly contested.”

“The first two weeks of the fourth quarter of this year were poor, the options market is also more depressed, and the current options position has fallen to a new low since 2023.”

However, Greeks added that a sluggish market “also breeds new trading opportunities” and is “perfect for building some medium to long term calls at a low level.”

In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, there are 212,000 Ethereum options that are about to expire with a put/call ratio of 0.4, a max pain point of $2,450, and a notional value of $510 million. This brings Friday’s crypto options expiry to $1.6 billion for the week.

Crypto Market Outlook

Spot markets have continued their retreat this week, with total capitalization falling 1.4% on the day to $2.21 trillion at the time of writing. However, they have been sideways now for more than half a year.

Bitcoin slumped to $58,900 during late trading on Thursday but recovered to reclaim $60,500 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. The asset has now lost more than 8% since late September as “Uptober” has yet to materialize.

Ethereum was equally bearish, dumping to $2,335 before a minor recovery to reclaim $2,400 at the time of writing. More FUD has been unleashed with rumors of the Chinese government selling a big stash of ETH seized from the PlusToken Ponzi.