Polymarket Prediction Market 2024 "Presidential Controversy": What Will Happen If Trump Loses?

Original Title: "Polymarket | What will happen if Trump loses the election?"

Author: Zaddycoin

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Please do your own research; this is just a personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice.

If Trump is reported by @AP, @Foxnews, and @NBCNews as losing the election according to market rules, I predict that the U.S. presidential election market on @Polymarket will experience two "disputes," and retail investors may suffer losses due to chasing the possibility of a market reversal.

In other words, if the market determines that Trump has lost, it may go through two disputes, and retail traders might go all in, hoping the market will overturn the disputed results. Please refer to this.

But remember, you are not Tom Brady… If Trump loses, I believe holders of TRUMPYES will not give up easily, even more tenaciously than supporters of HARRISYES. However, rules are rules, and @Polymarket reminds everyone of the consequences if this happens.

Market Rules

Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Winner

Let me explain.

Dispute Mechanism

Anyone can dispute the market by staking $750 on @UMAprotocol about a day after the market resolves. This is just a small amount for the platform's liquidity. Traders can dispute twice before the market fully resolves.

This is an example of a double dispute that has been overturned. (These examples show what a dispute market looks like).

Venezuela Election Winner .

Since the rules require all these news agencies to confirm, and based on the precedent of past dispute markets on Polymarket, I expect the market to enter a double dispute phase, and holders of $UMA tokens (UMA voters) will ultimately determine the result as "Trump loses."

False Arbitrage Opportunities

During this period, I predict there will be some arbitrage opportunities for those investors hoping to achieve 100x returns through a market reversal (betting 1% on TRUMPYES, hoping to profit 100x if the market reverses). During the dispute, the market will set the initial pricing of TRUMPYES at 1% and TRUMPNO at 99%, and as more people try to invest for a 100x return, market volatility may increase (creating arbitrage opportunities).

To be honest, these are like slot machines in the prediction market.

Some might say, "With a 100x chance, I'll put in some," while others might invest large amounts more confidently. Sigh…

I wouldn't bet on that 100x chance; instead, I would invest in the 99% possibility because after the dispute period, the market should determine it as "Trump loses."

Note: The potential arbitrage opportunities may be small, as "100x bettors" cannot drive market changes alone.

In the RFK market, the market dropped to 96% YES after resolving on Friday. During the dispute, seasoned investors (OGs) who understand Polymarket's stance on disputes can take advantage of market rules to gain 6% in free arbitrage profit.

How to Determine if the Timing is Right?

If @AP, @Foxnews, and @NBCNews announce that Trump has lost the election, my prediction may come true.

Imagine if @FoxNews does not announce a winner out of support for Trump; that would be very interesting.

I'm not sure if there has been a precedent for this before, but if it really happens, it would be quite fascinating.

I sympathize with @Polymarket because if any of these hypothetical outcomes materialize, it could lead to very complex situations involving a lot of money. Again, this is just some thought-provoking hypothetical ideas based on a combination of various variables; please consider this premise. Meanwhile, I would also like to hear the opinions of @Domahhhh, @hosseeb, and others.

Let the games begin.