Price analysis 11/4: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA

Data hints that there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin ( BTC ) may create a new all-time high this week. The United States Presidential elections and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision are two events that are expected to boost volatility . 

Pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades said in a post on X that Bitcoin will see “at least a 10% move in either direction depending on who wins the election.”

Investors have maintained a bullish stance going into the elections. CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report shows that investors pumped $2.2 billion into digital investment products last week, with Bitcoin garnering the lion’s share of the inflows.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

However, not everyone is bullish in the short term. Trading firm QCP Capital cautioned its Telegram channel subscribers that Bitcoin could face a sell-off after the elections , “replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.”

Could Bitcoin start a relief rally? Will altcoins follow? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell below the 20-day exponential moving average (5,778) on Oct. 31, indicating a weakening bullish momentum.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls successfully defended the 50-day simple moving average (5,703) on Oct. 31 but failed to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on Nov. 1. Sellers will try to sink the index below the 5,670 support. If they do that, the selling could pick up, and the index may dive to 5,400.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level or 5,670 and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will signal buying on dips. The index could then climb to the all-time high of 5,879.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded off the 20-day EMA (103.56) on Nov. 1, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

Solid selling by the bears has pulled the price to the 20-day EMA on Nov. 4. If the 20-day EMA cracks, the selling could pick up, and the index could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 102.92.

On the contrary, if the index turns up from the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the sentiment remains positive, and traders are buying the dips. The bulls will then make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at 104.80. 

Bitcoin price analysis

Buyers purchased the dip below the 20-day EMA ($68,259) on Nov. 3 but are struggling to build upon the bounce.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could plunge to the crucial support at $65,000. This is an important support for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the positive sentiment intact.

If the price turns up from the 20-day EMA and breaks above $70,000, it will tilt the advantage in favor of the buyers. The pair could rise to $72,000 and eventually to $73,777. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend the $72,000 to $73,777 resistance zone.

Ether price analysis

Ether ( ETH ) is trying to maintain above the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern, but the bears continue to exert pressure.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A break and close below the support line will signal that the sellers have overpowered the buyers. That could start a downward move to $2,310 and then to $2,200. Buyers will try to defend the $2,200 to $2,111 zone with all their might.

The bearish view will be negated in the short term if the price rises from the support line and breaks above the moving averages. The ETH/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to the resistance line. A trend change will be signaled after buyers overcome the barrier at $2,850.

BNB price analysis

BNB ( BNB ) continues to trade inside the large range between $460 and $635, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair could fall to $527, which is a crucial near-term support to keep an eye on. If the price rebounds off $527 and rises above the moving averages, it will signal that the bulls are trying to keep the pair in the upper half of the range. The pair may consolidate between $527 and $612 for some time.

If the price continues lower and breaks below $527, it will suggest that the bears are in command. The pair may sink to the vital support at $460.

Solana price analysis

Solana ( SOL ) slipped below the breakout level of $164 on Nov. 3, indicating that the markets have rejected the breakout.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive for the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to sink to the 50-day SMA ($154). Buyers will try to push the price back above $164. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could climb to the $183 to $189 resistance zone.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($165), it will suggest that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. The pair could descend to the 50-day SMA and then to the uptrend line.

XRP price analysis

XRP ( XRP ) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $0.50 support.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.52) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to sellers. If the XRP/USDT pair turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a drop to $0.46 increases. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.46 to $0.41 zone.

The first sign of strength on the upside will be a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.55). That will clear the path for a potential rally to $0.64.

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin ( DOGE ) is trying to find support at the 20-day EMA ($0.15), indicating demand at lower levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will try to push the price to the overhead resistance at $0.18. This level is likely to act as a barrier, but if the bulls prevail, the DOGE/USDT pair could start the next leg of the up move toward $0.21.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair could plummet to the 50-day SMA ($0.13), which is likely to act as a solid support.

 

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin ( TON ) is finding support in the $4.72 to $4.44 support zone, but a negative sign is that the bulls have failed to push the price above the moving averages.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. If the support zone gives way, the TON/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which could start a decline to $3.50.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the bulls push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA ($5.30). The pair could then rise to $6 and subsequently to $7.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano ( ADA ) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.35) on Nov. 2, indicating that bears continue to sell on rallies.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to pull the price to the support of the range at $0.31, where the buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off $0.31 and rises above the moving averages, it will signal that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

If the price breaks below $0.31, it will signal the resumption of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could decline to $0.27, which is an important support to watch out for. If this level gives way, the pair may drop to $0.22.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.