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Battlefield between on-chain VC and community: Will the legend of Eliza reproduce the legendary path of Neiro?

Battlefield between on-chain VC and community: Will the legend of Eliza reproduce the legendary path of Neiro?

远山洞见2024/11/20 03:20
By:远山洞见

I. Project introduction

Eliza is a decentralized AI proxy project incubated by the ai16z fund, built on the Solana chain. As one of the first proxies in the ai16z ecosystem, Eliza's token with the same name became the focus of the market as soon as it was published. It not only attracted attention for its technological innovation, but also was once the largest holding of the ai16z foundation.
However, as the project's influence expanded, Shaw, the founder of ai16z, suddenly announced the severance of his relationship with eliza and launched a new token, ELIZA. This decision made eliza seen as an abandoned project, and its token market value plummeted in a short period of time.
Despite this, the eliza community has shown great resilience and continues to promote the development of the project with the original intention of decentralization and community-driven. As an AI project taken over by the community, the future of eliza is full of challenges, but it also unleashes greater possibilities. In the game of capital and community, eliza has become an indispensable presence in the crypto market.
Battlefield between on-chain VC and community: Will the legend of Eliza reproduce the legendary path of Neiro? image 0

Ⅱ.Narrative Description

The story of Eliza began with the incubation plan of ai16z, a decentralized fund dedicated to transforming on-chain transactions through AI agents. On the Solana chain, the AI agent Eliza launched through @vvaifudotfun received support from Ai16z, and Eliza's token quickly became Ai16z's largest holding, with a market value rising all the way to $50 million, becoming the focus of the market.
At this glorious stage, eliza was regarded as the star project of ai16z. However, things did not develop smoothly as people expected. When the popularity of eliza reached its peak, the founder of ai16z, Shaw, suddenly announced a "cut" with the eliza project and launched a new token, ELIZA. In a statement, Shaw said that eliza had been "freed", implying that the project would be completely taken over by the community, while secretly supporting the capital ELIZA to become the new core.
This "case war" quickly triggered violent market fluctuations. Within 15 minutes of Shaw's statement, the token market value of ELIZA plummeted rapidly, while ELIZA continued to rise within minutes due to market speculation. Community anger quickly accumulated, and users who supported ELIZA believed that this was an orchestrated "abandonment", while ELIZA's rise was seen as the result of conspiracy group manipulation.
Despite being hit so hard, the community of Eliza has not dissipated. The official Twitter account responded quickly, stating that Eliza was created by the community and will continue to serve the community, and will not stop moving forward due to the loss of ai16z's support. At the same time, on-chain data shows that the active level of Eliza's community continues to grow, demonstrating resilience and potential driven by decentralization.
In this game around Eliza, the collision of interests and beliefs is particularly intense. It is not only a typical case of a market phenomenon, but also a vivid narrative that demonstrates how community power responds to capital pressure. The future of Eliza is still unclear, but its story has become a memorable part of the history of encryption.
 

III. Market value expectations

$Eliza current unit price: 0.036 dollars, fully diluted total market value: $35.2M
Benchmark project type and market value expectations
1, artificial intelligence concept Meme coin $ACT
Unit price: 0.554 dollars
Market capitalization: $524.43M
If the fully diluted market value of $eliza reaches the level of $ACT, the unit price is about 0.534 dollars
Increase: + 1383.3% of current price
2. Meme coin $GOAT released by artificial intelligence
Unit price: 1.16 dollars
Market capitalization: $1,163.83M
If the fully diluted market value of $eliza reaches the level of $GOAT, the unit price is about 1.16 dollars
Increase: + 3122.2% of the current price
 

IV. Economic models and on-chain chip analysis

According to GMGN data, the holding ratio of TOP100 addresses is 51.4%, indicating a high concentration of chips. This means that the top 100 addresses hold more than half of the tokens, and the market pricing power is more inclined towards these large investors. The average buying price of TOP100 is 0.02078 dollars, which is 71.6% higher than the current price, indicating that most large investors are still profitable. The average selling price is 0.02815 dollars, which is only 26.66% higher than the current price, indicating that some large investors have already cashed in profits in this price range.
Currently, the chips are mainly concentrated in the hands of a few large investors, and the profit level of these addresses is at a relatively high level. Once there is a concentrated sell-off, the market price may face greater pressure. However, there is no obvious trend of concentrated reduction, indicating that the market sentiment is still stable.
On-chain data shows that some addresses are actively increasing their holdings. For example, the pVWH9... ckR address added 107.22 SOL, with a capital inflow of $395.8K, indicating a sustained bullish attitude. Another increasing address, AVAZ... XYm, increased its holdings by 1,591.62 SOL, an increase of up to 1595.14%, indicating a significant bullish signal from market funds after the token was listed on the exchange.
On the contrary, some addresses have chosen to reduce their holdings. DdJ7... vBP addresses reduced their holdings by 250.11 SOL, with a loss of 14.61%, which may be related to short-term stop-loss or changes in market sentiment. Overall, the direction of fund flow is mainly to increase holdings, but further movements of the reducing addresses still need to be monitored.
V. Risk Warning
According to GMGN data, TOP100 addresses hold over 51.4% of tokens. This highly concentrated position structure tilts the market pricing power towards a few people. Once large investors collectively reduce their holdings or manipulate, it may lead to a sharp drop in prices, depletion of liquidity, and even trigger market panic.
GMGN data shows that some large investors have achieved a profit of up to 71.6%, while the current average selling price is only 26.66% higher than the market price. As the price gradually approaches the psychological selling range of large investors, the market may face greater downward pressure. In addition, although some of the increasing holdings show short-term bullish intentions, the sustainability still needs to be observed, and there is uncertainty about whether the net inflow of funds can be maintained.
 

VI. Official links

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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