Onchain options protocol Derive says data shows Ethereum has less than a 10% chance of hitting the much-anticipated $5,000 mark by the end of 2024, despite significant inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hinting at a looming “supply-side crisis.”

The probability that Ether ( ETH ) will reach $5,000 by Dec. 27 “climbed to 16% at its peak but has recently adjusted down to just over 8%,” Derive head of research Sean Dawson said in a Dec. 10 markets report.

Ethereum has less than 10% chance of tapping $5K by year-end, says Derive image 0

Ether’s chances of reaching $5,000 by the end of the year have fallen by about 50%. Source: Derive.xyz

ETH needs a 37% jump from its current price of $3,669 to reach $5,000, CoinMarketCap shows .

Dawson added that “the trading of calls and puts for ETH is evenly distributed, suggesting a neutral market sentiment.”

“TradFi is gobbling up cheap ETH” — trader

Pseudonymous crypto trader CoinMamba holds a different view, saying in a Dec. 10 X post that their “target for ETH is still $5k by the end of this year.”

“Do what you will with that information,” they added.

Ethereum has less than 10% chance of tapping $5K by year-end, says Derive image 1

Ether was trading at $3,661 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, in an X post on the same day, Ethereum contributor Eric Conner pointed to the $305 million in Ether ETF daily inflows on Dec. 10 as a signal that a “supply side crisis” is coming.

Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano added that “TradFi is gobbling up the cheap ETH.” 

Of the $305 million in inflows, Fidelity Ethereum Fund accounted for $202.2 million, according to Farside data .

Ether new all-time high call within the week

This follows a Dec. 9 claim from Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams , who suggested that a new Ether all-time high “could happen” within the next week. Ether’s current all-time high is $4,878, reached in November 2021.

Related: Ether to $5K on fractals, BlackRock ETH ETF holdings 2x with $500M buy

Meanwhile, pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi said in a Dec. 9 X post to his 830,900 followers that Ether “is having structural changes as well as the beginning of consistent and large ETF flows.” 

They highlighted that ETH had its “highest weekly close of the year” and echoed Adams’ sentiment, suggesting a retest of its all-time high could happen sooner than many traders anticipate.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.