Google unveils ‘Willow’; Bernstein downplays quantum threat to Bitcoin

Technology giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has announced a new quantum chip that is expected to usher in widespread innovation and real-world application for quantum computing.

According to an official announcement, Google says the new chip can eliminate some errors commonly associated with quantum computing while demonstrating seamless performance. Dubbed “Willow,” the quantum chip has been in the works for over a decade and forms part of the roadmap Google has laid out.

While quantum computers rely on qubits to measure their computations, the consensus is that errors increase alongside the number of qubits. However, a recent paper released in Nature reveals that the reverse is the case for Willow, as it can cut errors in half.

“This historic accomplishment is known in the field as “below threshold” — being able to drive errors down while scaling up the number of qubits,” read the announcement.

Early studies indicate that Willow can achieve real-time error correction on a superconducting quantum system. The significance is that fixing errors during computation is key in ensuring overall accuracy, hinting at the prospects of mainstream use.

In terms of performance, Willow blows its competition out of the water, performing advanced computations in under five minutes. Google says that the fastest supercomputers will take 10 septillion years to finish the same calculation, with Willow surpassing the random circuit sampling (RCS) benchmark.

RCS is Google’s brainchild and is widely considered the standard quantum computer test. It confirms whether or not a task to be performed by a quantum computer can be done by a classic computer.

Armed with 105 qubits, Willow excels in RCS and quantum error correction tests with improved excitation retainer times, a 5-fold improvement from previous chips.

Eye on commercialization

Before Willow, the mainstream use of quantum computing appeared to be far off in the distant future. However, the tech giant says that enterprises can begin integrating quantum computers into their operations as early as 2028, with Google adopting a “useful, beyond classical” approach.

“Google’s advancement in quantum computing with Willow puts the likelihood of companies using quantum computers for business in the next two to three years,” said Dr. Erik Garcell, Director of Quantum Enterprise Development at Classiq, to one news outlet.

Despite the push into quantum computing, Google says it keeps an eye on innovation in classical computing and other emerging technologies that may be relevant to solving real-world commercial challenges.

Quantum threat to Bitcoin still decades away, says Bernstein analysts

Google’s announcement of Willow has elicited a wave of excitement across the board, but digital asset enthusiasts are worried about the implication of a commercial release.

There is palpable fear that the new quantum chip may pose new threats to Bitcoin, with bad actors leveraging it to break and decrypt encryption codes. However, Bernstein analysts has downplayed the fears, noting that a direct threat to Bitcoin is still “decades away” from troubling the asset.

Analysts spearheaded by Gautam Chhugani noted that Willow’s 105 qubits cannot breach Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). The ECDSA secures private keys and facilitates digital signatures for each transaction, with the SHA-256 serving as an additional layer of protection.

According to Bernstein analysts, breaching ECDSA will require millions of qubits, a far cry from the 105 qubits possessed by the most advanced quantum chip.

Despite a direct threat being in the far future, Bernstein’s analysts urge for preemptive action to mitigate the risks associated with mainstream quantum computing. While several solutions have been floated, the most obvious choice appears to be a transition to quantum-resistant signatures to counter the use of quantum computing to decrypt encryption codes.

“Should Bitcoin contributors start preparing for the quantum future? Yes, but any practical threat to Bitcoin seems to remain decades away,” said the analysts. “Bitcoin contributors have also been debating a transition to quantum-resistant encryption.”

However, pivoting to quantum-resistant encryption will not be easy for the community. The worst-case scenario will involve a hard fork that could spark a schism over the dominant chain in an attempt to increase block sizes.

A soft fork might be an ideal solution, but experts say the process could take several years to complete. One group of experts opines that the earliest threats may appear in five years, eliminating a soft fork solution while pushing for an urgent fix.

Capriole Investments Founder Charles Edwards argues that as little as logical 2500 qubits may be able to break the SHA-256 algorithm, casting doubt on the 300 million qubits touted by researchers.

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