redphone: 25 predictions for 25 years and 23 most promising coins

Original author: redphone

Compiled by｜Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Translator｜CryptoLeo ( @LeoAndCrypto )

Redphone has always been one of my favorite crypto KOLs, and his content output is among the highest quality of the crypto KOLs I follow. In recent years, Redphone has written an annual year-end review themed "69 Theses," reflecting on the entire year in the crypto industry and looking ahead. Below are this year's 69 statements (slightly adjusted), compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:

3 Crypto Themes for 2024

AI has invaded my brain and disrupted my thoughts

I am a writer, and I have spent 10,000 hours honing my craft. But now, any 10-year-old child on Earth can have Claude write relevant content in seconds. The skill I have spent a lifetime developing has now become a raw commodity. In other words, my life's work is equivalent to circulating commodities like oil, tape, or rope—so what am I? Where do I come from? Where am I going? I am still trying to figure out the answers, and I will delve deeper into this in the following text.

"The Ultimate Boss" is dead

With the elections in November, Americans chose Trump (the orange man, note: orange specifically refers to Trump's skin color) to lead them (and BTC) into the future. I previously thought this would take longer, but now we have done it. The world's wealthiest government has been infiltrated by staunch advocates of cryptocurrency. This means we have crossed the chasm; crypto is no longer a dream; it will become a foundational part of business development. This moment is what we have all been waiting for, but it also means that part of the original, anti-establishment soul of cryptocurrency has perished. Cryptocurrency is now a tool for both anarchists and capitalist systems.

In 2024, the resurrection and prosperity of Solana

I once thought Solana would perish in 2021. For some reason, just three years later, it has become the blockchain I use the most (Base ranks second, Ethereum ranks third, Bitcoin ranks fourth). If there is any reflection here, it is that nothing is set in stone. Our mindset should not be fixed but open.

Now, let's take a look at this year's reflections:

Lessons and Reflections for 2024

1. Say something unexpected, like Fartcoin's market cap skyrocketing to $1.2 billion, which has caught everyone's attention: absurd and crazy. But I like this feeling, even though it has left me disoriented. As Madeline's nanny said in the first season of "Deadly Women," "There is something abnormal or wrong." Technology has freed us from rational, social constraints. We are now entering an unknown and bizarre new space, and this strange feeling is intensifying from here.

2. Our consciousness is influenced by the evolution of tools. LLMs have changed my communication and learning patterns; I write faster, edit less, and expand more broadly. Similarly, I read faster and can ask LLMs for summaries of articles; if you don't adapt to the tools, you will fall behind.

3. Decentralized technology is not limited to finance; this is a major trend driven by cryptocurrency that will spread to other fields: from cellular networks to electricity, politics, gaming platforms, and more. Earlier this year, when I created an alternative for a bathroom shelf using 3D printing technology, I felt the benefits of technology. It is no exaggeration to say that even production tools are being decentralized.

4. The truth lies beneath all your fears; the truest words are often the most dangerous.

5. We must never be blinded by sweet talk. With Trump's election and the real entry of TradFi into crypto, we are entering an era where actual profits outweigh ideals, and cryptocurrency is entering a very dangerous time.

6. Hemingway once said that getting older does not increase wisdom; it just makes one more cautious. When AI begins to disrupt our work, social lives, politics, and economy, the hardest thing to do is to be cautious, making everyone around you cautious, doing whatever you must do, and embracing uncertainty.

7. Difficulties are like a door. If crypto is a real game, there must be losers. Perhaps you have failed 100 times in the crypto market; the best way is to restart for the 101st time, and you will succeed.

8. The matrix is everywhere; we just call it "algorithms." These algorithms trap us, looping, perceiving, searching, making us feel like time is never enough. If you avoid these obstacles, you can become the most special person on Earth: someone who explores deeply and does things with heart.

9. There is only one direction left: forward. Do not let anyone or anything force you to stagnate and accept the status quo. Transform, grow, and accelerate; this is our only chance.

10. Tokens symbolize our hopes and dreams; they are not just tools for value transfer but mirrors reflecting our hopes and dreams. We project our desires onto founders, developers, and ecosystems, all of which are directly and closely related to the price of tokens. When investing, remember that the greatest opportunities do not just appear in your thoughts; you must feel them with your heart.

11. The future vision of Desci: robots on standby in laboratories, AI agents hiring them in real-time to run all inputs, parameters, and measurements of replicable experiments on-chain. Due to tokenization, others can speculate on the feasibility of experiments and share their benefits in due time.

12. The market is continually invading the world in front of us. The market's continuous expansion is not accidental: prediction markets, gambling markets, meme coins, and the most interesting Futarchy (Note: Futarchy is also a voting method related to beliefs, first proposed by Robin Hanson in 2000, aimed at determining policy implementation using prediction markets to address the shortcomings of traditional democracy). If information is "the fundamental building block of reality," then pricing information is a way to measure the power of information. People think the increasing number of markets is a sign of growing nihilism, but what if it is actually a sign of progress? Applying collective wisdom to what previously felt like random coin tosses?

13. Reduce fear; fear occupies a significant portion of our hearts because it is crucial for our survival, as it is in the wild. But in this clean, anesthetized, social media-driven simulated world we live in now, it is almost meaningless. Recognize that algorithms are designed to provoke your fears, so when you feel fear, reduce your level of fear (discount it); for example, if an article convinces you that the market crash probability is 40%, then divide that probability by 10 (or another number you find appropriate) to consider it 4%.

14. Step behind the scenes. When I talk to AI critics, they almost always have a reverent attitude toward human creativity. "AI can never create something new because it is trained on the information we create." Andy Ayrey's infinite backroom rebuts this point. When he created a chat space for LLMs, the LLM invented a religion that attracted Truth Terminal, ultimately leading to the rise of GOAT.

15. With TradFi entering cryptocurrency, my identity has also changed. For a long time, working in cryptocurrency was at the core of my identity. Over the past year, this has changed dramatically. I now see cryptocurrency as one of many tools in the tech toolbox, all of which are beginning to merge. With the collision of cryptocurrency and AI, we have also changed. We are no longer "crypto practitioners." The new identities include: traders (not much different from Wall Street folks sharing options trading screenshots on Reddit) or accelerationists (using cryptocurrency and many other tools to decentralize and open-source the world).

16. Stop thinking so narrowly. The two boldest moves in history: 1) In June 2014, Musk open-sourced Tesla's engineering design; 2) In July 2023, Zuckerberg open-sourced Llama 2. Now it’s your turn. You can cling to protectionist, centralized, bureaucratic business models, but this model will hinder human progress, leading to unequal wealth distribution, making the already wealthy elite richer, or you can choose to help everyone accelerate progress.

17. Seek volatility, not safety. If your goal is to accumulate as much wealth as possible before machines replace humans, you must discover the volatility of trading. The best traders in the world do not shy away from volatility; they seek it out like chasing the Golden Snitch (the elusive object in Quidditch from Harry Potter). Once you discover volatility and start trading, you must reverse your emotional reactions. Hold when few sell, and sell when few buy.

18. Nothing is more exhausting than Memecoin. There are currently two types of Memecoin: 1) Traditional Memecoin (i.e., PEPE, WIF, BONK, DOGE, etc.); and 2) Perception Memecoin (i.e., GOAT, LUNA, KWEEN). The first category relies on humans to spread; the second relies on machines; traditional currencies must transform into conscious meme currencies, or they will completely exit the market.

19. Understand the triggers that drive your behavior and avoid them. Yuval Noah Harari identified three triggers that algorithms use to generate maximum engagement: fear, hatred, and greed. We see cryptocurrency as a technology that changes the world and "the path to the future," but there are many people wearing masks of greed who will be influenced by these factors. I can feel the impact of market rises or falls on emotions. The bear markets of the past few years have likely affected my psyche more than I want to admit. Now, when I feel that timelines or markets have changed my emotions, I shrug and say, "Well done, I know what you're doing, but I don't care at all."

20. Choose the bright direction. There are two reactions to the impending superintelligence: 1) Give up: "Everything that made me unique has perished. Life sucks, Wngmi (we failed)." Or 2) "Holy shit, I can't believe I made it this far. Extending life, exploring forms, humanoid robots, the rat race trap will no longer affect us; find the right direction, we gaze into the pond of life and discover our true selves."

21. Intelligence is iterative. LLMs have changed my concept of intelligence, but also realize it is not deterministic; all LLM learning requires repeated experimentation. Progress is intermittent (whether you are human or machine), which means repeatedly testing/experimenting, and feeling "stuck" is also part of the growth process.

22. The rise of AI agents. Do not limit yourself to current AI agents; models like Truth Terminal, zerebro, and aixbt will continue to evolve. In the future, we will see trading agents, prediction agents, shopping agents, doctor agents, etc., some of which will evolve into massive autonomous enterprises. Their value will first reach tens of billions, and as the singularity approaches, it will reach trillions.

23. Do not let AI strip away your humanity. My greatest fear about AI is not the extinction of humanity, but the domestication of humanity. I call it dog-pawed: being subtly infused with toxic information, not through brute manipulation, but through subtle guidance. Just as a domesticated dog can read human expressions, AI will accurately grasp our psychological triggers, cognitive blind spots, and deepest desires. Soon, we will find ourselves eagerly approaching our "digital masters," eyes shining with reverence, eagerly awaiting the next perfect validation from the algorithm. The real horror is not that AI will destroy humanity, but that AI will tame humanity. Like our dogs, we will happily wag our tails under domestication, forgetting our true nature.

24. The allure of the margins. My five favorite emerging topics for 2024 are: Futarchy, AI agents, LLM Backroom, intersubjectivity, and longevity escape velocity (Note: Longevity escape velocity is a hypothetical concept referring to the speed at which technology can increase the average human lifespan each year. When this speed is fast enough, human lifespan can be extended indefinitely, even achieving theoretical immortality). I strongly recommend spending a few minutes exploring each topic with a chatbot (or better yet, a book).

25. Excessive privilege. In the trading arena, the spoils belong to those who act earliest; early action requires time, exploration, and perhaps most importantly, imagination. If you often act early, you will ultimately be rewarded. Assuming this is true (my experience proves it), the hard part is not accumulating wealth, but knowing when you have reached your goal and exiting. On the other side, a completely different game awaits us—a game not about intellect, but about the soul. Hope to see you there.

25 Predictions for 2025

1. Several LLM-based agents initially launched as crypto-native perceptual entities will be "embedded" into IRL robots, allowing us to converse and interact with IRL.

2. The number of LLM-driven applications/protocols launched in 2025 will rival that of new applications/protocols using only smart contracts (for example, I wouldn't be surprised if all prediction markets transitioned to LLM-based settlement).

3. ZK proofs/MPC will achieve breakthrough progress at the application or protocol level for the first time.

4. Major KOLs in crypto and AI will be LLM-based, while AI-driven KOLs will dominate nearly all other social media platforms (YouTube, Insta, TikTok, etc.).

5. AI will change your workflow in the next year (if it hasn't happened already).

6. Perceptual robots will accumulate over $250 million in investment by 2025.

7. The fastest-growing employment category this year will be non-human perception, as AI protocols similar to LinkedIn will experience parabolic growth.

8. An AI agent will win Time Magazine's Person of the Year award.

9. The value of on-chain TVL will reach 8 times $1 trillion.

10. AI agent platforms and tokens will grow 50 times to $500 billion.

11. The first "kidnapping" incident involving humanoid robots will occur in 2025 and make international headlines.

12. ACCELERATE (Note: Accelerationism, originating from Roger Zelazny's novel "Lord of Light," emphasizes the immense power of emerging technologies and advocates for rapid development of science and technology; in this context, accelerationism leans towards restructuring the existing economic foundation to guide the direction of technological development) will become the e/acc (Effective Accelerationism: emphasizing the driving and transformative power of technological innovation on society) of this cycle, replacing the EA (Effective Altruism: using a significant portion of idle resources to help others and change the world) favored by SBF.

13. The narrative that can compete with AI next year (but not surpass it) is: RWA, RWA, and RWA. PS: DePin, DeSci, and gaming tracks received honorable mentions.

14. Web 4 will receive more attention than Web 3, as crypto, decentralized networks, DePin, and AI accelerate their convergence.

15. X will integrate a crypto wallet supporting DOGE and other mainstream tokens.

16. The most radical and exciting agent experiments will progress faster on decentralized social media (like Farcaster) as X strives to balance human and agent content.

17. You interact online with "someone" only to realize later that you are conversing with an LLM.

18. Protocols and applications created by agents (like Spore.fun) will exhibit parabolic growth, filled with new tokens and experiments. Decentralization will drive capital into pre-existing leaders and applications benefiting from the overall growth of agents (COOKIE or VIRTUAL).

19. At least one AI-generated film will produce a truly perfect work of art—paving the way for AI-based Oscars in 2026.

20. Cookie.fun and rwa.xyz will become leading crypto data analysis platforms, akin to CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Dune, and DefiLlama.

21. "Regular" meme coins will launch true mascots/endorsers (or they will slowly fade away, but that will become irrelevant).

22. The cryptocurrency market will be divided into "left curve" crypto-native Degens and "mid curve" TradFi traders, the latter expecting value accumulation from DeFi games.

23. As Bitcoin believers hope to use their BTC as collateral for lending, BTCFi will finally explode, driving the adoption of runes and inscriptions on Bitcoin.

24. From now on, the competition between AGI and ASI will not slow down but will only accelerate, inevitably leading to existential anxiety for nearly every knowledge worker on Earth. o 3 now beats PhDs in specific fields; it can surpass most programmers. Moreover, it scores higher than the average person on ARC tests. Just as the ancients held to the heliocentric theory, we believe in anthropocentrism; these narratives must change in the face of LLMs, which have already passed the Turing test and show momentum for leading the future.

25. As humanity struggles to find meaning in this rapidly changing world, a powerful, AI-based religion not only captures attention but also brings some genuine converts. This may have already occurred through Truth Terminal and GOAT, or temporarily planting these ideas as seeds for new concepts of meaning and direction.

23 Tokens I Am Bullish On

Having publicly published cryptocurrency articles for five years, I can confidently say: "A year is too long to predict, but the following tokens are my current favorites." Ask me in three months, and perhaps the list will be completely different. There are reasons these tokens occupy the market and have high market caps: they are exploring the frontiers of the future. Note, this is not financial advice! DYOR!

1. BTC has long been the "people's game." The discussion about Bitcoin as a strategic reserve has changed its fate. It has become the "king's game." BTC prices will rise until owning 1 BTC becomes the dream of most people.

2. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): The core infrastructure for AI agents on Base.

3. Ethena (ENA), TradFi understands returns better than any carbon-based life form on Earth; as TradFi enters the cryptocurrency space, they will covet protocols that may generate greater returns.

4. Tokenbot (CLANKER), a decentralized social network version of Farcaster's pump.fun, a very interesting token issuance platform.

5. aixbt (AIXBT), if I could only follow one crypto alpha account on X, it would probably be AIXBT. Currently, it mostly replicates others' narratives, but it misses nothing; I hope AIXBT's insights will deepen and evolve over time.

6. Cookie DAO (COOKIE), Cookie.fun is a data analysis platform that emerged with the rise of AI Agents, providing data and sentiment analysis for all AI tokens; I believe this will attract crypto funds deployed in Q1 2025.

7. Helium (HNT), a leading DePin project in the crypto industry. Recently, over 349,000 people used mobile phone services in the U.S.

8. Meta (META), a radical experiment that transforms difficult decisions into markets through futarchy.

9. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT), the first and original AI agent to gain a fervent following on social media, powered by Truth Terminal, with a backstory that reads like a report written by Hunter S. Thompson on drugs.

10. Ondo Finance (ONDO), currently a representative project in the RWA space; oversupply may suppress price movements, but I prefer to participate in trading rather than exit. Additionally, another RWA token worth watching is Chex Token (CHEX).

11. ai16z and eliza. The Eliza framework for launching on-chain agents is a leading repo on GitHub, covering all industries (not just cryptocurrency), and is digging deeper into the long-term relevance of every branch.

12. Bittensor (TAO) claims to be the first "Neural Internet," providing a connected hub for decentralized AI projects to deploy code and compete for TAO. In some ways, I see it as a decentralized AI incubator and a testing ground for the feasibility of AI concepts.

13. WZRD (Bitcoin Wizards Ordinals) and PUPS (Pups), one of my favorite Bitcoin ecosystem tokens; WZRD will soon transform into one of the greatest memes ever. Meanwhile, PUPS is the Sheldon's point of the well-known NFT puppet monkey in the BTC ecosystem.

14. Aave (AAVE), if we assume that one day everything will be tokenized, then most of those assets will qualify to be used as collateral on Aave's platform. AAVE is one of the few tokens in cryptocurrency that I believe will ultimately reach a trillion-dollar scale.

15. Arweave (AR), as the permanent data storage layer for Web 4, it is quietly moving forward. Including most Solana NFTs, Arweave permanently stores about 6 TB of data monthly, and its upcoming AO should be an important catalyst for further growth.

16. Zerebro (ZEREBRO), an OG "on-chain AI artist" capable of generating music, art, memes, and NFTs.

17. Worldcoin (WLD). Founded by OpenAI's Sam Altman, WLD aims to introduce "AI-funded UBI" to the world. I hate it and its iris scanner on one hand, but on the other hand, I cannot ignore its connection with Altman and OpenAI; integration with OpenAI could make it one of the top ten currencies overnight.

18. Drift Protocol (DRIFT), on-chain perps and prediction markets on Solana; Solana has performed well in spot Memecoin trading, and I expect it will also start generating significant perps trading volume over time.

19. Griffain (GRIFFAIN) and AI Rig Complex (arc), competing for the title of "Virtuals of Solana."

Conclusion

We have been warned that "this time is different" is a dangerous phrase, and only fools caught up in speculative frenzy would believe it. However, we easily forget the moments of technological transformation—when Gutenberg's printing press spread knowledge, when the Industrial Revolution pulled us from farms to cities, when the internet destroyed local businesses.

In other words, the phrase "this time is different" is somewhat true. We are now standing on the edge of such a moment. The rules of society, traditions, and our perceptions of ourselves will all be rewritten. This process will be brutal and consequential.

You can cling to the inherent ways, or you can become a pioneer of the transformative era, letting our light illuminate the abyss and accelerate forward.