Estimate Pump.fun revenue: Send one coin official income 68 USD, users 70% profit or pay transaction fee

Author: Frank, PANews

Pump.fun has recently sparked a public relations crisis, as the American law firm Burwick Law has filed a lawsuit against Pump.fun and the fraudulent project parties on behalf of investors who suffered losses on the platform. Burwick Law stated that this announcement was made after months of collaboration with investors, and also called for more victims to fill out registration information. Additionally, discussions arose on social media a week ago regarding the fact that only 55,000 addresses on Pump.fun had profits exceeding $10,000, prompting Pump.fun founder Alon to respond to the inaccurate data. It seems that behind the substantial fees and interactions contributed by players, the question of who the biggest winner of Pump.fun is has become a topic of greater concern.

A Free Casino or a Breeding Ground for Conspirators?

Regarding Burwick Law's legal action against Pump.fun, many crypto KOLs have joined the discussion. Notable on-chain detective ZachXBT stated: "Depraved gamblers voluntarily choose to gamble in micro-cap MEME tokens; they are not actual victims or investors."

In response, Burwick Law shared the views of its partner Max Burwick: "Like a casino, regulated gambling is defined by rules and immutable statistics. Imagine if you went to a casino and the dealer could 'rug pull' a card game; would you make the same argument here?"

In fact, ZachXBT and Max Burwick's views essentially represent two attitudes of the public towards the lawsuit against Pump.fun. Some believe that trading on Pump.fun is voluntary for users, and the lawsuit is merely a manifestation of not being able to afford to play. From a mechanism perspective, Pump.fun has also reduced many fraud risks within MEME tokens. Others argue that Pump.fun has collected substantial fees while allowing certain addresses to manipulate the market without content review, and therefore should be sued.

Of course, whether Pump.fun has violated relevant regulations, and whether this lawsuit will result in a victory for investors or evolve into a farce, remains unknown.

How Many Winners Are There on Pump.fun?

But beyond that, how many users on Pump.fun are actually profiting? Who are the biggest beneficiaries of Pump.fun? This information may be more meaningful for ordinary users. PANews has summarized and analyzed data from Pump.fun over the long term.

In fact, as early as January 11, discussions on social media regarding the number of addresses on Pump.fun that had profits exceeding $10,000 being only 55,000 (accounting for 0.408%) caused quite a stir, prompting Pump.fun founder Alon to respond, stating that this statistical data was inaccurate. The reasons are: 1. It does not account for tokens purchased that are bound to Raydium, as most profits are generated after token binding. 2. It does not consider unrealized profits. 3. Among over 13 million traders, many are bots and AI agents. About 30% of wallets have only conducted one transaction, which cannot be attributed to real humans.

Here, Alon refers to the "Pump.Fun Alpha Wallets" data table created by @adamtehc on Dune. It should be noted that Alon did not claim that @adamtehc's data was distorted, but rather that he believed the data was incomplete and insufficient to illustrate the profit situation of Pump.fun users.

In subsequent analyses, PANews will also partially use data from several Dune dashboards created by @adam_tehc, but will only select basic statistical data such as total address count, transaction volume, cumulative profits, etc. Additionally, since there is no direct user profit and loss analysis data, the following analysis will use existing confirmed data for analysis, estimation, and inference. This analytical method may not be very precise, but it aims to shed light on certain issues from various angles.

Due to the variety of data categories used, some basic data is listed here (data as of January 16):

Cumulative revenue of Pump.fun: $416,810,737 (approximately $416.8 million)

Cumulative tokens issued by Pump.fun: 6,096,526 (approximately 6.1 million)

Cumulative user addresses on Pump.fun: 14,130,923 (approximately 14.1 million)

Revenue of Pump.fun in the past 30 days: $105,182,383 (approximately $105.2 million; this figure is somewhat high, mainly because Pump.fun aggregated revenue from several other DEXs in January).

Total cumulative transaction volume: 36,030,577,862 (approximately $36 billion; note: this data is from April 22, 2024, to January 6, 2025. Based on the cumulative revenue of approximately $9.65 million on April 22, and reverse-calculating at a 1% fee rate, the total transaction volume prior to this is estimated to be around $965 million, thus estimating the cumulative transaction volume to be about $37 billion).

The average graduation token ratio is 1.42%.

The above data comes from @adam_tehc's Pump.Fun data on Dune.

Number of transactions on Pump.fun in the past 30 days: 113,540,000 (approximately 113.5 million)

Number of active addresses on Pump.fun in the past 30 days: 7,795,520 (approximately 7.8 million)

The above data is sourced from the Solana browser Pump.fun Program data.

Additionally, PANews randomly sampled 5,252 transactions of seven tokens on Pump.fun that were about to be fully issued as of January 16, conducting transaction behavior analysis, which revealed 36 bot addresses and 909 real users.

Official Revenue of $68 for Each Token Issued

Based on the above statistical data, PANews calculated the following analytical results:

Token Data:

Based on the total number of tokens issued and total revenue data, we found that the average official revenue per token issued is $68.

Based on total transaction volume and total token issuance, we calculated that the average transaction volume per token is approximately $6,074.

User Data:

Based on total revenue and total user count, we can calculate that the average fee contribution per user to the official is approximately $29.49.

Based on the total revenue in the past 30 days and the total number of transactions in 30 days, we can estimate that the revenue contribution per transaction is approximately $0.92. Based on the 1% fee rate, we can estimate that the average transaction size per user in the past 30 days is approximately $92.63.

From the data of the past 30 days, we found that the average user conducted 14.56 transactions, with each address contributing approximately $13.49 in fees, and based on the overall user contribution of $29.49 in fees, we can infer that the average number of transactions per address is approximately 31.8.

At this point, let's summarize the data we have obtained: the average single address conducted 31.8 transactions, with an average transaction size of approximately $92.63.

Combining the basic data of tokens, we can calculate that the average number of transactions generated per token is approximately 65.5 transactions, and the average number of transactions per user participating in a token is approximately 5.5 times. The average number of addresses participating in each token is approximately 11.79 addresses.

Are 70% of User Profits Taken by the Official?

Next, we estimate the following ideal scenario. Suppose all users have a chance to buy the graduating tokens, and when these tokens go live on Raydium, all users can sell them for double the profit each time, with the transaction size being the average transaction size. For the sake of understanding, we will assume there is a user named "Average Joe" whose data is exactly at the average.

Based on the calculated results, we know that the graduation rate of tokens on Pump.fun is 1.42%, meaning that this "Average Joe" player has a winning rate of about 1.42%. This "Average Joe" player has a transaction size of $92.63 each time, and he has conducted a total of 31.8 buy-sell transactions. Based on this data, we can calculate that this "Average Joe" has successfully bought 0.45 graduating tokens, selling them for a profit of $41.88.

During this process, this "Average Joe" incurred $29.49 in fees. Of course, this only accounts for his fees and does not consider any losses he might have incurred due to personal trading decisions. We assume he was very lucky in his internal trades; even if he did not buy the graduating tokens, he managed to break even each time without incurring losses.

According to the above calculations, we can see that in an extremely ideal scenario (not considering losses), users can average about $41.88 in profits, but the fees they must pay amount to $29.49. This means that in this relatively ideal income situation, Pump.fun essentially takes 70% of the user's profits.

If such calculations align with reality, it may not be difficult to explain why many investors are directing their grievances towards the Pump.fun officials.

Of course, these calculations may deviate from reality; for instance, internal players may have an overall profit margin greater than double after going live on Raydium. However, this scenario is unlikely, as the vast majority of tokens tend to drop to zero quickly after going live on Raydium. For example, as of January 17, a total of 48,631 tokens were issued on Pump.fun within 24 hours, while 697 tokens graduated during the same period. The number of tokens that went live on Raydium with a market cap greater than $81,000 (graduation market cap) and more than 100 transactions remaining was only 214, meaning that only 30% of tokens maintained graduation market cap after going live on Raydium.

Finally, the above data calculation methods are estimates and inferences and do not fully represent the facts. However, from the overall data perspective, regardless of the situation, the Pump.fun team is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary of this MEME craze. Providing official data as soon as possible would better guide and inform users and clarify the situation.