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Bitcoin’s Future May Break Away from Traditional Cycles, Says Bitwise CIO

Bitcoin’s Future May Break Away from Traditional Cycles, Says Bitwise CIO

CryptodnesCryptodnes2025/02/02 13:00
By:Cryptodnes

Bitcoin has long followed a predictable four-year cycle, but this pattern may no longer hold, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.

While 2025 is still expected to be a bullish year, Hougan warns that 2026 could take a different path, diverging from past trends due to shifting macroeconomic conditions.

In a recent letter to investors, Hougan challenged the idea that Bitcoin’s price movements are primarily driven by halving events. He pointed to regulatory shifts and broader economic forces as the key catalysts shaping the market. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced strong rallies followed by sharp corrections—such as the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 and the SEC’s crackdown on ICOs in 2018. However, Hougan argues that recent events signal a fundamental shift.

One major turning point, he noted, was Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC in 2023, which ultimately paved the way for Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. This institutional gateway helped push Bitcoin from $22,218 in early 2023 to over $102,000. Additionally, U.S. policy decisions, including executive actions from Donald Trump, have played a growing role in shaping the market.

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Looking ahead, Hougan believes Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 by 2025, fueled by continued ETF inflows and institutional demand. However, he cautioned that rising leverage in the market—through debt-funded BTC purchases and lending programs—could heighten volatility and lead to unpredictable shifts in 2026.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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