‘Altseason’ ended in 2024: Bitcoin dominance should hit 71% before it returns

Bitcoin ( BTC ) dominance of the overall crypto market needs to pass 70% to restart “altseason,” new analysis says.

In his latest X content , popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that the most recent altseason has already finished.

Analyst: Bitcoin dominance can increase 16% or more

Bitcoin market capitalization dominance spiked to near four-year highs this week as altcoins took major losses amid a broad risk-asset rout.

Dominance reached 64.3%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms, before returning to circle 61%.

As BTC price strength held up better in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty, attention began to focus on the altcoin market’s prospects going forward.

For Rekt Capital, however, the writing has long been on the wall. Examining the recent history of the Bitcoin dominance chart, he identified a dip below 55% in early December as a definitive floor.

“That was the Bitcoin Dominance bottom, effectively confirming an end to the Altcoin Season we saw at the end of 2024 BTC,” he concluded.

“Dominance has increased by +6% since then.”

Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

That perspective contrasts strongly with hopes that altcoins may soon recover lost ground against the largest cryptocurrency.

Continuing, Rekt Capital said that an altcoin comeback should eventually come — but not before dominance gains at least another 16% from current levels. This would bring the current market cycle in line with historical norms.

“If history repeats, the real Altseason everybody is waiting for would begin once Bitcoin Dominance rejects from 71% (red),” he commented alongside an illustrative chart.

Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

“Altcoin underperformance” has multiple causes

Others are not so sure that Bitcoin can advance much further.

Related: ‘Atypical’ Bitcoin bull market can extend beyond March 2025 — Research

Noting the earlier tap of 64%, popular trader Titan of Crypto called the event “highly bearish.”

“Rarely have I seen a Gravestone Doji of this magnitude on BTC.D,” he told X followers.

“Could this signal the beginning of an awakening for Altcoins?”

Bitcoin market cap dominance chart. Source: Titan of Cypto/X

For trading resource Stockmoney Lizards, meanwhile, the end of heavy Bitcoin influence is a matter of wait-and-see.

“There are several factors contributing to the heavy underperformance of Altcoins vs. Bitcoin. First, we are still in the post-halving Bitcoin Euphoria phase. This is fueled by ETF buying, as well as Trump’s plans of a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” it wrote in a dedicated X post on the topic on Feb. 5.

Its analysis said that a breakout on largest altcoin Ether ( ETH ) was a prerequisite for broader altcoin market follow-through.

ETH/BTC 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported , ETH is in a multiyear downtrend against Bitcoin, which has helped push BTC’s market dominance higher.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.