200 days to go! The four major currency ETFs will face the final judgment in October this year

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily

Author: jk

Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted and reviewed applications for multiple cryptocurrency spot ETFs, among which the progress of XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Solana (SOL) ETFs has attracted particular attention. This article summarizes the latest developments of major ETFs, the SECs review process and analysts expectations.

XRP spot ETF: Applications are active, and the SEC’s attitude is slightly open

There are many applications for XRP spot ETFs, and multiple issuers are actively promoting the listing process. Odaily previously reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially accepted the XRP ETF application submitted by WisdomTree on February 19 and solicited public opinions. According to the SECs approval process, a ruling must be made no later than October 17, 2025. On February 15, the SEC confirmed receipt of the 19 b-4 application submitted by 21 Shares, marking the official review stage of its XRP ETF listing process.

Grayscale is ahead of the curve: On February 14, the SEC accepted the 19 b-4 application submitted by Grayscale and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to convert the Grayscale XRP Trust into an ETF. The SECs latest ruling date for this conversion is October 12, 2025. If the ETF approval style of Bitcoin and Ethereum is followed, it is very likely that all will be approved or rejected before this date.

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate that the probability of approval of the XRP spot ETF is 65%.

But at the same time, XRP’s final approval will be affected by several risk points.

One of the public strategies is that Ripple actively promotes the development of central bank digital currency (CBDC) and has cooperated with countries such as Montenegro on CBDC pilot projects. Odaily previously reported that Ripple also spent millions of dollars lobbying in Washington, trying to become the final issuer and technical supporter of the US CBDC.

However, US President Trump is clearly against CBDC, and once publicly stated in a speech at the Bitcoin Conference that there would be no CBDC if he was elected. He believes that CBDC may have an adverse impact on privacy rights. This difference in position may lead to some adverse effects on US regulators and XRPs eventual becoming an ETF.

At the same time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple in 2020, accusing it of unregistered securities offerings by selling XRP. Although the court ruled in July 2023 that XRP was not considered a security when sold in the secondary market, the SEC appealed the ruling in October 2024, causing the price of XRP to fall by 11% at one point.

Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF: The highest possibility of approval

Litecoin ETF is currently considered the most likely new cryptocurrency ETF to be approved, mainly because of Litecoins long-term market stability, strong compliance, and similar technical architecture to Bitcoin. As one of the longest-running cryptocurrencies on the market, LTC has maintained a high level of security and decentralization since its launch in 2011, which, like Ethereum, makes it less risky under the SECs regulatory framework. In addition, Litecoin has not been identified as a security by the SEC like XRP or SOL, but is closer to the commodity attributes of Bitcoin (that is, Litecoin has not been issued as explicitly for financing purposes as SOL) , which reduces regulatory barriers.

On February 11, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicted that the LTC ETF had a 90% chance of approval. On February 14, he said on social media: If we use baseball terms, most altcoin ETFs are still on first base, but the Litecoin ETF is heading for third base.

According to the SECs approval process, the official acceptance date for the Litecoin ETF is January 29, so the latest ruling date is September 26, 2025.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Spot ETF: The First Meme ETF?

If the SEC eventually approves the LTC ETF, the DOGE ETF may become the next beneficiary. On the one hand, the DOGE network is highly decentralized and lacks an obvious centralized institution or issuer, so it is difficult for the SEC to identify it as a security. Instead, it is closer to commodity attributes, making it more suitable for the issuance of ETFs. Secondly, DOGE has a large and active community support and has maintained high liquidity in the market for a long time, which makes it attractive to both institutional and retail investors, which also maintains a certain demand for the issuance of ETFs.

Odaily previously reported that on February 14, the SEC confirmed receipt of a 19 b-4 application submitted by Grayscale and NYSE seeking approval for the DOGE ETF. The SEC must make a ruling by October 12, 2025 at the latest.

Bloomberg analysts predicted on February 11 that the probability of approval for the DOGE spot ETF is 75%. As the markets attention to DOGE increases, its ETF application is also accelerating, but it still needs to wait for the final decision of the SEC.

Solana (SOL) Spot ETF: The SEC needs to overturn its own definition of securities

Solana ETF application has made new progress recently. Many institutions began to apply for SOL spot ETF this year; Odaily previously reported that on February 12, after the new leadership team took office, the SEC had accepted Solana spot ETF applications submitted by 21 Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital and VanEck. Previously, these institutions withdrew their applications due to regulatory issues. At the same time, Franklin Templeton also submitted documents in Delaware to register the Franklin Solana Trust, which may become another main line for the institutionalization of Solana assets.

However, Solana (SOL) also faces regulatory issues. During the tenure of the previous chairman Gary Gensler, the SEC listed SOL as an unregistered security in multiple lawsuits (such as the Coinbase and Binance lawsuits in 2023), increasing the complexity of its operations in the US market. Analysts have said that if the SEC ultimately chooses to approve the SOL ETF, it would be equivalent to publicly overturning its previous definition of cryptocurrencies as securities , which may have an adverse impact on the SEC in court.

Therefore, Bloomberg analysts Seyffart and Balchunas predict that the probability of SOL ETF approval is 70% . According to the application acceptance date of February 12, the SEC must make a ruling by October 9, 2025 at the latest.

Ethereum (ETH) ETF: Staking mechanism may be introduced

Previously, when the SEC approved the Ethereum ETF, it might introduce a staking function to further increase investor returns.

Odaily previously reported that on February 15, NYSE Arca submitted an application to the SEC to allow Grayscales Ethereum ETF to be pledged in order to obtain additional income from large ETH holdings. Earlier this week, Cboe BZX Exchange also made a similar application to allow 21 Shares Core Ethereum ETF to be pledged.

According to Fox, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cryptocurrency working group has discussed with industry representatives whether Ethereum ETFs can introduce pledges. The working group has held meetings with Blockchain Association, Jito Labs and Multicoin Capital, Nasdaq, and Colin Lloyd, a partner in the commodities, futures and derivatives and capital markets team of the law firm Sullivan Cromwell.

How to introduce staking mechanism into Ethereum ETF?

Since Ethereum switched to PoS, the staking mechanism has been introduced to Ethereum; participants lock a certain amount of Ethereum in the network to support its operation, and in return, they will receive additional Ethereum as a reward, usually through a liquid staking platform such as Lido. By introducing the staking mechanism through ETFs, investors do not need to operate or manage the staking process themselves. The ETF issuer will handle it on their behalf, and investors only need to hold ETF shares to indirectly obtain these staking benefits.

That is to say, after investors purchase shares of the Ethereum ETF, the issuer of the Ethereum ETF (such as Grayscale) will automatically use the investors funds to purchase Ethereum, and pledge Ethereum to a certain pledge service provider, while distributing the pledge income to the investor. Compared with the two steps of purchase + pledge on the chain, buying an ETF only requires one step to continuously obtain the income of staking Ethereum.

In addition, Coinbase, as the custodian of Grayscale Ethereum ETF, manages nearly $1.3 billion in assets. If the SEC approves these pledge proposals, the Ethereum ETF market may see stronger inflows.

With the change of the SEC and major US regulatory agencies, crypto-friendly people have taken office, and XRP, LTC, DOGE and SOL ETFs are expected to make progress in 2025. Among them, LTC and DOGE have the highest probability of approval, at 90% and 75% respectively, while SOL and XRP have probabilities of 70% and 65%. In addition, if the Ethereum ETF is approved for staking, it will provide investors with an additional source of income. According to the SECs approval process, a final ruling on these ETFs must be made by mid-October 2025 at the latest. Odaily will closely follow the SECs further decisions and continue to report for you.