10x Research: Bitcoin may enter another 8-month oscillation period, and the market lacks the momentum to "buy on dips"

Markus Thielen, research director of 10x Research, said that Bitcoin may repeat the trend of 2024, entering a long period of consolidation after hitting a historical high. He pointed out that the technical chart of Bitcoin currently shows a "high-level tight flag" pattern, which is usually considered a bullish continuation pattern, but the current structure shows some signs of weakness, indicating that the market is in an uncertain state rather than simply consolidating in a bullish manner.

In addition, Thielen observed that the US spot Bitcoin ETF market has not shown obvious "buying the dip" sentiment, lacking new capital inflow momentum. He believes that most of the ETF funds mainly come from arbitrage-driven hedge funds, and the consistently low funding rate has reduced investors' willingness to add funds in the recent pullback. According to Farside data, since Bitcoin fell below $90,000 in early March, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has cumulatively withdrawn about $1.66 billion.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,290, down 23% from the historical high of $109,000 set in January. Thielen believes that it is unclear whether Bitcoin can resume its upward trend in the short term, and recommends investors to temporarily close out short positions at the current stage, but still lacks clear signals to support a strong rebound.

At the same time, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted on March 10 that Bitcoin may retest $78,000, and if it falls below this support, $75,000 will become the next key level. Nexo research analyst Iliya Kalchev believes that Bitcoin may form a more sustainable rebound base in the $70,000 low area.