Macro Outlook for Next Week: Market expects the Federal Reserve to be more dovish, inflation stagnation doubts still need to be resolved

PANews reported on March 23 (UTC+8) that the past week delivered mixed signals from the Federal Reserve. The inclusion of stagflation risks in the latest economic projections appeared to contradict Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reassurances about a strong economy. Meanwhile, with the looming deadline of April 2 for former President Trump’s proposed broad reciprocal tariffs, global financial markets remain volatile. The following are key events the market will be watching closely in the upcoming week:

• Monday 21:45 (UTC+8): U.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI final readings
• Tuesday 21:05 (UTC+8): FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams delivers opening remarks at an event
• Tuesday 22:00 (UTC+8): U.S. March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
• Thursday 01:10 (UTC+8): 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks
• Thursday 20:30 (UTC+8): U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 22
• Thursday 20:30 (UTC+8): U.S. Q4 Real GDP annualized final reading, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) final reading, and Core PCE Price Index annualized final reading
• Friday 20:30 (UTC+8): U.S. February Core PCE Price Index (YoY), Personal Spending (MoM), and Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

Although the Fed signaled that it is in no rush to cut rates, market expectations have turned more dovish. Investors widely anticipate three rate cuts this year, betting that the U.S. economic slowdown will be more severe than the Fed currently projects. This suggests that economic growth data may become a major market focus in the coming months.