Bitcoin Price Bleeds Into April as Tariff Fears Kill Q1 Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) price closed the first quarter of 2025 deep in the red, with traders eyeing growing macroeconomic risks that threaten to dampen any near-term rebound. BTC fell 12.7% in Q1, its worst quarterly performance since 2018, as gold pushed to new all-time highs and U.S. trade tariffs sent ripples through risk assets.

The move ends Bitcoin’s two-year streak of strong Q1 gains and places added pressure on bulls ahead of fresh data and Federal Reserve speeches this week.

Worst Q1 in Seven Years Puts Bitcoin Bulls on Edge

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin ( BTC) price  action dropped 13% in Q1 2025, closing just above $81,000. The slump followed a steep 30% drawdown from January highs, erasing optimism built on MicroStrategy’s $1.92 billion Bitcoin buy and expectations of lower interest rates.

Compared to the 72% Q1 surge in 2023 and the 69% gain in Q1 2024, this year’s performance marks a dramatic shift. The last time Bitcoin fell this hard in a first quarter was in 2018, when it dropped 50% following the ICO market collapse.

Ethereum (ETH) fared even worse, shedding 46.4% to trade near $1,800, mirroring its Q1 2018 collapse.

Glassnode noted that while this correction remains milder than previous cycles — which saw 60%+ drawdowns — the lack of upside momentum points to a market still digesting macro stress.

“This cycle continues to be the least volatile of all,” Glassnode wrote in February.

Trump’s Tariffs and Inflation Stir Fresh Volatility for Bitcoin Price

On Mar. 28, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index hit 2.8% year-on-year—above the 2.7% forecast—suggesting inflation isn’t cooling fast enough for the Fed to cut rates soon.

At the same time, President Donald Trump’s administration moved ahead with sweeping new  trade tariffs , starting April 2. The measures target roughly $1.5 trillion in imports, including Chinese goods, oil from Venezuela, and Canadian and Mexican exports.

In a March 30 thread, The Kobeissi Letter  described  April 2 as the “biggest escalation of the trade war to date,” calling it “Liberation Day.” It noted that markets are bracing for widespread retaliation, including duties from the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

The resulting market uncertainty erased over $1 trillion in tech stock market cap. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell more than 2% following the PCE release, dragging crypto with them.

BTC Price Risks New Dip as Gold Breaks Out

The March 30 weekly close brought prices to $81,200, the lowest in two weeks. On X, trader CrypNuevo highlighted a fresh downside wick, warning it “might get filled quite soon.”

HTL-NL flagged a “bearish engulfing” candle on the weekly chart. Meanwhile, Barchart warned of an incoming “death cross” — a bearish technical signal where short-term averages cross below long-term trends.

While some short-term holders capitulated, long-term investors still remain in profit, according to Glassnode. However, analysts noted that these longer-term holders were likely the main force behind Q1’s profit-taking.s

The GOLD/BTC ratio broke a 12-year downtrend, signalling a renewed interest in gold as a safe haven. “A massively disastrous chart for ETH,” analyst Michaël van de Poppe wrote, citing gold’s strength and Ethereum’s weakness.

Coinbase Premium Signals Cautious Optimism

The Coinbase Premium — the spread between BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance — returned to near-neutral territory, according to CryptoQuant.

Contributor Crypto Sunmoon noted that the metric’s stability “suggests panic selling is decreasing.” He added that the resistance to further downside may indicate a “possible trend reversal.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which gauges profit margins for holders, is approaching its long-term average. However, CryptoQuant’s Yonsei Dent warned that no bottom has been confirmed yet.

“The market has exited the overheated zone,” he wrote, but “further downside risk remains.”

All Eyes on April as Fed and Jobs Data Loom

Traders now await the April 2 U.S. jobs data release, with jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls due later this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on April 4, offering further clues on rate policy.

So far, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still sees June as the earliest likely window for a rate cut. Until then, crypto markets appear locked in a macro-driven range.

Julien Bittel of Global Macro Investor believes Q1’s volatility may reflect policy tightening from late 2024. He expects April to be a turning point — provided liquidity improves and tariff escalation does not worsen.