Act I : The AI Prophecy Kurs ACT

The crypto market has seen a massive progress on the 3rd of February. As per the data from Phoenix Group, $GRIFT, $ALPHA , are leading the daily crypto gainers with huge returns, paving the way for further price development. The crypto analytics platform disclosed the list of the daily crypto gainers on social media. ✅$GRIFT Takes Top Position among Daily Crypto Gainers with 43.0% Surge In line with Phoenix Group’s list, $GRIFT occupies the position of the leading daily crypto gainer. Its price has reportedly jumped by 43.0% increase to reach $0.04 and its market cap is $42.3M. Additionally, $ALPHA takes the 2nd place with a 27.8% surge to touch $0.09 while its market capitalization is $74.5M. Subsequently, $DF’s 17.8% price spike has raised it to $0.09 whereas the market capitalization thereof is up to $98.7M. After that, $SPA secures the 4th rank among the top daily crypto gainers with a 17.2% rise. As a result of this, its price has reached $0.02 and its market capitalization accounts for $56.3M. The next crypto gainer on the list is $BUZZ with a 15.9% price change. Hence, its market capitalization and price are up to $43.4M and $0.04 respectively. It is followed by $ARC as the top 6th daily crypto gainer as the price thereof has witnessed a 12.1% change. With this, its price and market cap account for $0.21 and $217.6M respectively. ✅$DEXE Bottoms List with 4.0% Price Rise The list adds $SWEAT in the 7th spot with a 9.8% change that places its market cap and price at $71.0M and $0.008 respectively. Following that, MASK’s 6.8% upsurge has raised its price to $2.39 however its market cap is $247.6M. Additionally, $ACT’s current price of $0.19 accounts for a 5.0% increase. Moreover, $DEXE shows a 4.0% jump, leading its price to $22.35.

As market sentiment shifts and key indicators point toward potential volatility, the question arises: Are we witnessing the peak of this rally, or is there still room for further gains before the inevitable correction? The Dow Theory offers a useful framework for understanding Bitcoin’s current market position by dividing market movements into two key phases: accumulation and distribution. Historically, Bitcoin has followed this cyclical pattern. In 2022, BTC underwent a clear distribution phase, characterized by a decline in prices after the bull run of the previous year. The Dow Theory offers a useful framework for understanding Bitcoin’s current market position by dividing market movements into two key phases: accumulation and distribution. Historically, Bitcoin has followed this cyclical pattern. In 2022, BTC underwent a clear distribution phase, characterized by a decline in prices after the bull run of the previous year. By the turn of 2023, Bitcoin entered an accumulation phase as investors sought to rebuild positions at lower price levels. This accumulation phase extended through 2024 before transitioning into the current early distribution phase in 2025. Technical inflection points, marked by changes in volume and price structure, have historically signaled these transitions. The attached Bitcoin price and volume chart clearly illustrates this progression, showing the cycles of accumulation and distribution. A notable feature of the current market phase is the renewed involvement of retail investors. Despite Bitcoin reaching its six-figure milestone, retail participation continues to grow, providing liquidity and driving demand in the market. Meanwhile, institutional players remain pivotal in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. MicroStrategy’s continued pro-cyclical purchase program highlights this dynamic. In early 2025, the company added 10,107 bitcoins to its balance sheet, bringing its total holdings to 471,107 units. Such significant purchases signal confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and act as a leading indicator of market sentiment. Despite entering the distribution phase, Bitcoin’s current price structure suggests that the market is far from overheating. We’re in the late stage of the #Bitcoin bull market, but I believe there’s still room for growth. I’d say we’re in the early distribution phase, as new retail investors are entering. Trump’s global promotional impact could extend this bull run for another couple of quarters. According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s Funding Rate remains relatively low, mirroring levels last seen in the summer of 2024. This indicates that the market is not overly leveraged and supports further spot price discovery. Bitcoin’s “fair price,” calculated through a power-law fit, sits at $87.99K and serves as a crucial support level. As long as prices stay above this threshold, the bull market remains intact. Analysts also point out that stable macroeconomic conditions could create opportunities for further price increases before the inevitable correction.$BTC

Mastering Range Trading with Volume Profile Trading within ranges requires precision, and the Volume Profile provides the perfect confluence for making high-probability decisions. By analyzing key levels such as the Point of Control (POC), Value Area High (VAH), Value Area Low (VAL), High Volume Nodes (HVN), and Volume Gaps, traders can anticipate market movements with confidence. The POC is the level with the highest traded volume, acting as a magnet for price action. It serves as a strong support or resistance, with price often consolidating around it. A breakout from the POC can lead to rotations toward the VAH or VAL, offering clear trading opportunities. The VAH and VAL define the range where 70% of the volume has been transacted. Price oscillates within this zone, creating a predictable trading environment. A move above the VAH, followed by rejection, often signals a drop to the VAL, while acceptance above the VAH may indicate a breakout. HVNs act as additional support and resistance zones, while Volume Gaps create areas of low liquidity, allowing for rapid price movements. By mastering these levels, traders can capitalize on market structure and execute well-timed entries and exits. Are you leveraging Volume Profile in your strategy?

My trading strategy is based on ranges, and the Volume Profile is the perfect confluence ✍️ Let's go over: - Volume Profile - POC - VAH (Value Area High) - VAL (Value Area Low) - HVN (High Volume Node) - Volume Gap 🔸Volume Profile What is the volume profile? The volume profile shows how much trading volume occurs at different price levels, offering a visual representation on a horizontal scale. This helps you easily identify where and how much volume has occurred at various price levels, allowing for effective and profitable trading within ranges. Let's discuss some key levels now 👇 🔸Point of Control (POC) The POC indicates the area where the most volume has occurred. You can leverage this information in several ways: - It acts as a support/resistance level: providing support when tested from above and acting as resistance when tested from below. - When the price breaks above the Poc, expect a rotation to the Vah/Val and possibly even the range extreme. - If the price trades near the Poc, you often encounter choppy price action. It's best to avoid trading near the Poc. 🔸Value Area High (VAH) The VAH marks the upper boundary of the value area, where 70% of the volume is traded during a specific time period. The area between the VAH and VAL is seen as "fair value," with prices typically fluctuating between these levels. The VAH can serve as a reference for anticipating price rotations back to the lower part of the range. When reclaimed, it might indicate strength and a potential breakout from the range. Moves above the VAH, followed by acceptance back below, often suggest a return to the VAL. 🔸Value Area Low (VAL) The VAL marks the lower boundary of the value area, where 70% of the volume is traded during a specific period. The VAL can be used similarly to the VAH, acting as a rotation level when the price is range-bound. Moves below or above this level can create rotation opportunities. 🔸High Volume Node (HVN) The high volume node is a zone within the volume profile where significant, though less than at the point of control, volume occurs. This level serves as a strong support and/or resistance area. 🔸Volume Gap A volume gap is an area within the volume profile where little volume is traded. These areas act as "gaps" and facilitate fast, easy moves when the price reaches these zones.

Bitcoin’s Connection To Global Events Like all currencies, Bitcoin is affected by the economies it is used in. Due to the globalized and decentralized nature of Bitcoin, it is impacted by the macroeconomic events of nearly every country in the world. Demand for the currency fluctuates as macroeconomic events affect Bitcoin’s ability to add value. Periods of wealth accumulation and economic growth may cause individuals to allocate to alternative assets like Bitcoin at higher rates. Additionally, investor attitudes towards risk may affect how Bitcoin is treated compared to traditional assets, such as bonds or equities. Bitcoin’s demand also depends on the appeal of alternative currencies, and can rise in countries where the local fiat currency is volatile or less useful. Expansion and Recessions The health of the global economy is one of the largest factors in the price of most assets, and Bitcoin is no exception. During expansions and other times of economic prosperity, people have more wealth to allocate to financial assets. The greater demand generally increases prices. Conversely, recessionary periods force people to use more of their money for immediate consumption, lowering demand for assets like equities or Bitcoin. Recessions and expansions also reshape the type of assets investors are willing to hold as their perceptions and tolerance of risk evolve. Risk-On Vs. Risk-Off Conditions During risk-on conditions, investors are more willing to make riskier investments if the potential reward is higher. Risk-on markets generally see more investment in equities. Conversely, during risk-off conditions investors attempt to minimize risk by investing in assets with more predictable returns. Risk-off assets include bonds and currencies, such as the Yen or the U.S. Dollar. Bitcoin has experienced a lot of volatility and price appreciation since its inception in 2009. This has made the currency more aligned with investor goals during risk-on market conditions. However, this may not always be the case. As Bitcoin becomes more established and its price stabilizes, it could eventually become a risk-off asset like gold. Both Bitcoin and gold have great characteristics to act as a store of value, largely due to scarcity which protects against inflation. Weak Fiat Currencies In most countries the value of goods and services is measured by a government issued currency, such as the Dollar or Euro. When the local currency experiences inflation, all of the goods in that country require more of that currency. This makes holding an inflationary currency detrimental to someone’s purchasing power. Every major economy uses a fiat currency which is prone to inflation, but the rate of inflation varies by country and time period. A primary driver of inflation is an increase in a currency’s supply. Bitcoin’s supply rate is predictable, and has a hard cap of 21 million, making it resistant to inflation. Bitcoin’s use case as an inflationary hedge increases in countries where the fiat currency has high levels of inflation. Both Turkey and Nigeria saw disportionate Bitcoin adoption in early 2021 due to high inflation and lack of faith in the Lira and the Naira, respectively. Government Regulation Bitcoin is also affected by the actions of local governments. Although no government can control Bitcoin, they can create laws or incentives that change their citizens’ desire to use the currency. For example, both Turkey and Nigeria banned Bitcoin transactions out of fear that their citizens would ultimately abandon the local fiat currency for the decentralized one. This certainly did not stop people from using Bitcoin, but it did make using Bitcoin more difficult. ➤ Learn more about whether Bitcoin can be banned. Alternatively, countries can encourage the use of Bitcoin by facilitating its access on public markets. Brazil and Canada both encouraged Bitcoin investment by authorizing Bitcoin ETF’s to trade on their public markets. Many expect the United States to make a similar decision in the near future. More broadly, countries can encourage citizens to use Bitcoin through tax policies that allow people to realize larger portions of their capital gains. Bitcoin Mining Resources In addition to people buying and transacting in Bitcoin, the network requires miners in order to operate. These miners require energy and high powered computers. The availability of these resources will affect the hash rate of the Bitcoin network, ultimately changing Bitcoin’s transaction fees, security, and short-term confirmation times. For example, a blackout in Xinjiang, China forced large mining operations to temporarily shut down. This resulted in higher fees for Bitcoin transactions for over a week and was blamed for a decrease in Bitcoin’s price. The availability of Bitcoin mining equipment depends on large technology companies producing computers and other necessary hardware. Additionally, external demand for these products affects the prices miners will need to pay for their equipment. External demand is driven by other industries that also need the equipment. Weather can also affect how easy it is to mine Bitcoin. The mining process causes computers to heat up substantially, and they must be cooled in order to continue operating. Cooling this equipment can introduce additional costs, so is it easiest to handle this issue in regions with a colder climate. Conclusion Bitcoin is becoming deeply ingrained in global economic patterns. As the currency becomes more regularly used in general economic activity, there will be new interactions with other macroeconomic events. No individual event can destroy Bitcoin, but external forces will certainly affect how appealing Bitcoin is to use. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s success is determined by how much desire there is to use the currency, both for saving and spending. $BTC