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📈 Bitcoin Sales at $109K All-Time High 'Significantly Below' Cycle Tops — Research 🚨 Bitcoin investors who bought BTC in 2020 or later are still waiting for higher prices, new research says. In findings published on X on April 1, onchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that $110,000 was not high enough to make many hodlers sell. 📊 Bitcoiners Still Holding 🔒 Bitcoiners who entered the market between three and five years ago have retained their holdings despite significant BTC price upside. According to Glassnode, this investor cohort, with a cost basis between the 2020 lows of $3,600 and the 2021 highs of $69,000, is still hodling. *📈 Realized Cap HODL Waves Data 📊* Glassnode used the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric to split the BTC supply into sections based on when each coin last moved onchain. This data shows that: - The majority of investors who entered between 2020 and 2022 are still holding. - Over two-thirds of those who had bought BTC 5-7 years ago exited their positions by the December 2024 peak. 🤔 Speculators Stay Cool at BTC Price Highs ❄️ More recent buyers, who form the more speculative investor cohort known as short-term holders (STHs), have proven much more sensitive to recent BTC price volatility. Episodes of panic selling have occurred throughout the past six months as BTC/USD hit new record highs and then fell by up to 30%. *📊 STH Participation 📈* Glassnode said that current STH participation does not suggest a speculative frenzy — something common to previous BTC price cycle tops. - Short-Term Holders currently hold around 40% of Bitcoin's network wealth, after peaking near 50% earlier in 2025. - This remains significantly below prior cycle tops, where new investor wealth peaked at 70-90%, suggesting a more tempered and distributed bull market so far. 🌟 Conclusion 🔍 The research suggests that Bitcoin investors are still waiting for higher prices, and the current price of $110,000 is not enough to make many hodlers sell. The data also shows that short-term holders are not participating in a speculative frenzy, and the bull market is more tempered and distributed.$BTC

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Bitcoin is entering April on uncertain ground. It is caught between waning bearish momentum and increasing uncertainty ahead of the highly anticipated “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on Wednesday. Technical indicators such as the DMI, Ichimoku Cloud, and EMA lines are sending mixed signals, with early signs of buyer power emerging. The market continues to be limited to both downside tests and breakout rallies depending on macro developments. With today’s JOLTS report and tariff clarification awaited, Bitcoin’s next big move could be around the corner. BTC DMI Shows Buyers Taking Control, But Will It Last? Bitcoin’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) is showing potential signs of a change in momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the strength of a trend regardless of direction, has fallen from 40.38 yesterday to 28.59 today. This suggests that the current downtrend is losing momentum. Typically, an ADX reading above 25 indicates a strong trend, while readings below this value indicate a weakening or sideways market. While 28.59 still shows moderate trend strength, a drop suggests that momentum is waning. Meanwhile, the +DI (positive direction indicator) rose from 9.35 to 23.75, while the -DI (negative direction indicator) fell from 34.58 to 17.88—suggesting that bullish pressure is building. This intersection between +DI and -DI could signal an early trend reversal, especially if confirmed by further price action and volume. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin is currently in a broader downtrend. Market participants are also closely monitoring the JOLTS report due today, a key indicator of US job openings. A stronger-than-expected report could boost the dollar and put pressure on cryptocurrency markets. On the other hand, weak data could boost interest rate cut expectations and potentially support Bitcoin and other risky assets. As trend indicators shift and macroeconomic data comes into play, Bitcoin’s next move could be heavily influenced by external factors. Recently, Larry Fink suggested that Bitcoin could replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Bitcoin Ichimoku Cloud: Downtrend Still Underway Bitcoin’s Ichimoku Cloud chart shows that the market is still under downward pressure despite signs of a near-term recovery. The price is currently testing the Kijun-sen (red line), a key resistance level. While the Tenkan-sen (blue line) is starting to flatten and curve upward—usually a sign of a change in momentum—the price is staying below the Kumo (cloud) and the broader trend is still bearish. The cloud ahead is red and bearish, suggesting continued downward pressure in the near term. However, the price briefly pushed back towards the lower boundary of the cloud, suggesting a potential challenge to the bearish structure. For a stronger trend reversal signal, Bitcoin would need to break above the cloud and form a bullish Kumo reversal. Until then, the Ichimoku setup is showing a cautious recovery at best. Independence Day Could Affect Bitcoin Price Bitcoin’s EMA lines remain in a downtrend. Its short-term averages are still below its long-term averages, suggesting continued downside momentum. This setup suggests that sellers continue to control the trend and unless it reverses, Bitcoin price could revisit key support areas. If the current downtrend accelerates, it could first test support around $81,169. If that level fails to hold, deeper declines to $79,069 or even $76,643 could follow. The increasing uncertainty in the market ahead of the “Independence Day” tariffs has Bitcoin equally positioned for a sharp move in either direction. It could fall to $73,000 or rise to $88,000: ‘As Independence Day approaches, uncertainty around the magnitude of tariffs is keeping Bitcoin and other risk assets in limbo. (…) This range-bound pattern will continue until there is more clarity on tariffs, but if we get softer news than expected or some kind of concession, we could see a breakout from the current trading pattern. If so, the level to watch in the short term is $88,000, but that would require a significant increase in volume to indicate an extended rally.’ It is argued that a tariff shock could cause BTC to test $73,000: “If there is a tariff shock, conversely, we could see BTC break toward $79,000 in the short term, or even fall further to the next support level of $73,000 if excessive fear grips the markets,” analysts say. Still, if Bitcoin manages to reverse the trend and gain some upward momentum, a rally to the $85,103 resistance would be the first target. A break above this level could open the way to higher levels such as $87,489 and $88,855.