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With the U.S. economy sending mixed signals, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate action seem set. According to crowd-sourced predictions from Polymarket , there’s a 76% chance the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the May 7 meeting. Among those pushing for an easing of monetary policy are President Donald Trump and investor Arthur Hayes, both arguing that lower rates could stimulate a slowing economy. However, the Fed appears committed to caution, prioritizing stability over reactionary moves. The Polymarket data, drawn from over $20 million in traded volume, reveals a strong consensus among traders. Most believe the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rate levels. The price for a “Yes” bet on no change currently trades at 76¢, reflecting strong market confidence in that scenario. Related: ‘Fed on the Clock’: Hayes Links Bond Market Stress to Coming Bitcoin Gains Besides the dominant expectation of no movement, the next most likely scenario is a modest 25 basis point cut. This possibility carries a 21% chance, with traders buying “Yes” at 21¢ and “No” at 80¢. While not the front-runner, this outcome has attracted speculative interest, especially during moments of economic uncertainty. Significantly, the chance of a deeper cut 50 basis points or more remains extremely slim. It holds just a 4% probability, suggesting that market participants believe the Fed will avoid aggressive shifts. Related: How a Potential Fed Shift to QE Could Impact Your Crypto Portfolio (Analysis) Meanwhile, the odds of a rate hike are practically nonexistent. With a likelihood of less than 1%, the market is nearly unanimous in ruling out an increase. A closer look at trading patterns since January shows the “no change” scenario steadily dominating. This option has hovered near or above 80% at several points, indicating growing market confidence in the Fed’s steady-hand approach. Meanwhile, the 25 basis point cut option has shown more volatility. It has experienced occasional spikes, likely in response to economic data releases or public statements. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

Loading some $ETH and $DSYNC in case I'm wrong and we end up front running the $BTC key level

On the BTC-Fi front, @Mantle_Official's flagship BTC-Fi pillar @FunctionBTC $FBTC has been quietly growing steadily to ATHs (~15k BTC TVL). This stands at 95% of @SolvProtocol's SolvBTC's current TVL (15.8k BTC). Expect this trend to continue as Mantle pushes for greater institutional adoption & establishment of new CeDeFi verticals.

Strategy is front running the whole corporate world and it doesn’t seem like anyone is trying to stop them.

Interestingly on the @solana front: While @JupiterExchange leads swap aggregation by volume, @defidotapp has been quietly printing consistent ATHs - averaging ~$77M daily over the past 2 weeks. Strong signs of a budding DeFi UX play gaining traction amidst a monopolistic space.